Honolulu Transit --
Elevated Yes!  Rail No!
Our basic PowerPoint presentation for
PRT for Honolulu and Oahu
Submitted to Governor Lingle on
01/13/10, a 3.2mb .pdf
Our response to AIA Honolulu re.
At-grade vs. Elevated Light Rail
Originally emailed to AIA 04.23.09,
updated with recent information.
PRT Essentials
A generic PowerPoint defining Personal
Rapid Transit.
email to Councilmembers Cachola and
Bainum
2/6/2009 message encourages a look at
PRT.
Response from Councilman Bainum
 
email to Councilmember Kobayashi and
University of Hawaii Professor Panos
Prevedouros
2008 email suggest how PRT is a better
solution for transit in Honolulu than
heavy rail.
Original email to City Council members
2008 email suggests a look at
alternative technologies is appropriate
before committing to  heavy rail.
Kamehameha Schools study (Philip
Craig) discusses at-grade vs. elevated
alternative.
Study reviews rail technologies, and no
other alternatives.
AIA Task Force Report: Suggested Light
Rail Transit (LRT) for the Honolulu
High-Capacity Transit Corridor Project
Download from AIA Honolulu's website.
Wendell Cox'  Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Evaluation (12/09)
Per Star-Bulletin: "Pollution from rail
feared" (12/09/09)
More Cost Comparisons
Government
proposes,
bureaucracy
disposes. And the
bureaucracy must
dispose of
government
proposals by
dumping them on us.

P. J. O'Rourke
PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT (PRT)
$600 million
$23-30 million
Four-five years
Far less than either rail alternative
(guideway is not constructed on site)
<$18 million due to full computerization,
maglim propulsion
Minimal
Significant given NO practical limit in
number of pubic or privately funded offline
stations
Very low, pylons sunk ~90 feet apart
Morgantown, West Virginia since 1970s
    The table below was originally published in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin in April, 2009.  To illustrate the significant advantages
    which PRT offers compared to older, heavier, linear and  more expensive rail technologies, a new column with relevant
    information is added.
                              This...                                                                       this...                                                                           this...                            
or this?
What's more reasonable?
Also check out
honolulutraffic.com
stoprailnow.com
PRT would be an excellent choice for transit in Honolulu:  

  • It fosters public/private partnerships, e.g. hotels, shopping centers, big box retailers, apartment/condo complexes and
    ordinary office buildings can be funding station portals built into their structures or above their parking lots for direct
    access by users, customers and guests.

  • As station portals are designed “offline”, as many as are feasible and affordable can be placed anywhere on the network
    without lengthening ride times.

  • PRT is immediately useful as its elevated guideway is built in interconnected loops – that is, it need NOT be a linear
    alignment and then only useful after miles of expensive tracks are built.  A single guideway loop with just two stations can
    be productive right away and still be expanded upon.  PRT is built in a network that can serve users all over the city, not just
    along a linear path.

  • PRT networks are easily extended onto private or special properties as secure 24/7/365 “collector/distributor” systems, e.
    g. for college campuses, the airport and military bases.

  • PRT is completely electrified, emitting no GHGs or pollution.  Guideway is also suitable for solar collection to partly power
    the system, or for selling power back to your electric utility.

  • Compared to rail, PRT is dramatically LESS EXPENSIVE – about one fifth to one tenth its cost.

  • PRT would become “an attraction of its own” – potentially drawing visitors to the island to examine it and use it for hotel <>
    airport transfers and touring between venues.  It will attract a middle-class demographic due to its privacy, and be able to
    operate without drivers 24/7/365.

PRT could mean JOBS for Oahu.  It’s very feasible that certain PRT vendors might gain the City's business by offering to assemble
vehicles there, and potentially assemble guideway (track and pylon structure are manufactured by offshore plants and then quickly
transported to the implementation, reducing construction time).  As new, state-of-the-art technology, PRT will need to be tested
and marketed as a solution for the island -- this means more job opportunities and creates a draw from anywhere else where PRT
is being evaluated.  With manufactured guideway designed and shipped from offshore, an installation could occur with vehicles
operational in a neighborhood in a matter of days.

PRT can be engineered, routed, and vehicles produced in quantity to handle the same ridership that’s projected for light rail.  By
deliberately starting small, and attracting commercial participation for station portals (and even owned/leased vehicles), the
network can be funded from both public and private sectors and grown to match ridership capacity equivalent or better than
traditional “mass transit”.  The misinformed will attack PRT’s small vehicle and assume that system capacity is limited – but this
can be easily disproven with computer modeling customized for your specific routing and ridership scenarios.  ”Networkability”
flattens the passenger load over a broader area and then is more accessible to an even larger user base.

An elevated solution is much more preferable in order to separate PRT from surface traffic, cause absolutely no additional
congestion and eliminate potential accidents, injuries and fatalities.  Unlike the proposed rail system, PRT is a much lighter weight
design and is far less visually impactful.  It can operate in non-traditional right-of-ways, like alleys and drainage channels, to better
hide it from view.  Its stations can be built into structures and be less obtrusive.  We emphasize that PRT is built in loops -- single
unidirectional guideways that are just as useful as dual train tracks.  We’ve collected information
here which also illustrates that
at-grade light rail can be extremely dangerous – for example, Long Beach’s Blue Line to Los Angeles has been involved in over 90
fatalities over its 20 year operation.  The new Phoenix system suffered 51 accidents in 52 weeks of operation last year.
Recent News, Links
 
   
"Today's Star Advertiser boldly publishes the most truthful op/ed written by Ben Cayatano, Walter
Heen, Randall Roth, and Cliff Slater. It is a must read! Then send it on, it is eye popping. "  --Via
Honolulutraffic.com Facebook page
Op-Ed, 8/21/11
Still in Planning, Ambitious Honolulu Rail Transit Project May be in Financial Trouble
Transport Politic, 8/21/09
Honolulu Rail Round Up - November 27, 2009
Hawaii Reporter
    Former Gov. Cayetano blitzes Mayor Mufi Hannemann's handling of rail
 
    Lingle Promises Thorough Review of Rail Project
 
    Honolulu officials faulted for rejecting ground-level trains
 
Honolulutraffic.com links to 12/7/09 Advertiser and Star-Bulletin stories "reveal(ing) rail as a polluter"
And: Stoprailnow.com
Honolulu’s Proposed Steel On Steel Rail Is A Dirty Idea
Panos Prevedouros --
YouTube on the Cox Report
Denver Post (8/16/09)
Honolulu rail behind schedule, with construction start unclear
Honolulu Advertiser
Sean Hao, 1/3/10
Honolulu's rail costs put state at financial risk, governor says
Honolulu Advertiser, 1/9/10
Lingle calls city's rail plan costly, elevated tracks ugly
Star-Bulletin 1/9/10
It's Governor Lingle versus Mayor Hannemann on Honolulu Rail Project
Transport Politic, 1/11/10
Another horror story involving rail transit -- VTA is in dire financial straits, yet has major expansion
plans per the San Jose Mercury News
1/11/10
Consultant says Honolulu transit project open to legal challenge, but light rail alternative would not
significantly delay project
Honolulu Legal News - Fwix
1/12/10
Time for silent majority to step up on rail -- Honolulu Advertiser editorializes in favor of pressing
ahead with rail option.  "Alternatives been sufficiently studied" --
NOT.
1/12/10
Honolulu rail project architects defend plan for elevated route -- "The group of about a dozen people
working for eight firms distanced themselves from a position taken by the American Institute of
Architects' Hawai'i chapter."  
Not all local architects favor at-grade rail.
Honolulu Advertiser 1/13/10
Street-level rail deserves a forum -- Gov. Lingle taking correct action to ensure options for project are
fully aired.  
Honolulu Advertiser 1/14/10
Michael Lilly opinion
City delays rail again, Governor worried about cost
KGMB/KHNL 1/18/10
Architects Push for Alternatives to Elevated Rail
KHON-2 TV 1/18/10
Governor Lingle's Opening Remarks to AIA Honolulu Transit Presentation (1/18/10)
"They (FTA) had told the City that the City will need a stronger financial plan before they are allowed   
to go to final design."
Hawai`i Free Press 1/18/10
UofH Professor Prevedouros: State of the Rail? Stuck!
1/18/10
Lingle not sold on elevated project
Honolulu Star-Bulletin 1/19/10
Daily Beast analysis has Lunalilo Freeway (H-1) as 2nd Worst Commute in U.S.
Daily Beast, 1/19/10
Denver Airport Exec: Don’t Build Rail to Airport
Antiplanner, 1/19/10
Hawaii architects urge more discussion of Honolulu rail options
Honolulu Advertiser, 1/19/10
Architect's Journal on PRT's Driverless cars as Masdar
Hattie Hartman, 1/19/10
Rail battle escalates -- City and State in position for political face-off
Honolulu Weekly, 1/20/10
The Rail Scam -- Fox Business' John Stossel on the EXTRAORDINARY costs of rail
1/21/10
Hawaii rail project may sink like island ferries
Blog post, 1/23/10
Elevated system best deal for taxpayers says Honolulu Advertiser editorial -- TRUE, but it's not rail
1/24/10
Phoenix, Put Aside Dreams of Gotham: "The Valley's $1.4 billion transit system carries barely 15,000
round trips daily - a microscopic proportion of the region's trips - with the biggest traffic on
weekends...more like Disneyland than New York."
Newgeography, 1/24/10
Law that sank Superferry could also halt rail transit
Honolulu Star-Bulletin 1/25/10
Honolulu Mayor Calls Governor 'Anti-Rail'
KITV ABC-4, 1/26/10
Lingle review of Honolulu rail plan could delay start
Newspaper's online poll shows responders favor financial review vs. additional delay 2 to 1
Honolulu Advertiser, 1/29/10
Governor, mayor at odds over financing for rail
Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 1/29/10
Honolulu rail would be safer at ground level, AIA contends
AIA misleads again, refuses to acknowledge or research dangerous at-grade rail systems
Honolulu Advertiser, 1/31/10
FTA commits $1.55 billion to pay for Honolulu rail system
But not so fast -- Prevedouros responds
Honolulu Advertiser, 2/2/10
fix oahu!
Honolulu Rail 4th Most Expensive in the Nation
Hawaii Reporter, 2/3/10
Panos Prevedouros blogs more costing, ridership comparisons
Table here, 2/9/10
Rail inevitably will become financial burden
Opinion by Cliff Slater
Honolulu Advertiser, 2/15/10
Long Beach Blue Line accident investigated as suicide attempt
LB Press-Telegram 3/4/10
Honolulu city official says AIA downplays rail safety issue
Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 3/10/10
Phoenix marks first year of light rail
Mixed results -- slow, accident-prone, tardy
Arizona Republic, 2/22/10
New Austin rail system already a boondoggle
More here from Transport Politic -- "Modest expectations"
statesman.com, 3/21/10
Interesting question from Panos Prevedouros' election website:

Name the city that in the last 10 years passed a referendum for light rail, built it, and got these results:
-- Despite population growth of 10% and gas price increase of 45% bus ridership fell 24%.
-- Bus fare increased 50%, 225 fewer buses were operated and on time performance dropped by 29%.
-- Before light rail the transit authority had a $125 million surplus, and now has a $165 million deficit.
-- Light rail cost increased from $1.2 billion to over $3 billion.
Results: No change in congestion, far worse transit for the poor, huge rail costs, huge transit deficits,
fewer permanent jobs.

ANSWER:  Houston
The emperor's new light rail
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/editorial/outlook/6922730.html
http://campaign.constantcontac
t.com/render?v=001vv2TPD5jw
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More from Panos Prevedouros -- Star Bulletin Island Commentary "Rail is a gravy train only for its
promoters" (4/13/10), in part:

Three scientists...analyzed 44 urban rail projects and found that the average construction cost overrun
in constant prices was 45 percent. For a quarter of the projects, cost overruns were at least 60
percent. Passenger ridership was 50 percent lower than forecast. For a quarter of the projects,
ridership was at least 70 percent lower than estimated.

A slogan they offered was "over budget, over time, over and over again."

They also reported that rail and similar projects are full of delusion and deception. Here are the main
reasons—and note that all four apply to Honolulu:

  • Rail projects typically compete for discretionary grants from a limited federal budget. This
    creates an incentive for city agencies to make their projects look better on paper with artificially
    high benefit/cost ratios, or else the feds may fund some other project.

  • The proposing agency purposely misrepresents costs, time frame, risks and benefits to
    secure the funding.

  • Planners purposely misrepresent costs, time frame and benefits to please the city agency.

  • Bidders propose artificially low bids because of planned compensation through expected
    scope increases.

In other words, the city government that needs money to build rail typically misrepresents the system,
and nobody is accountable for high-balling the ridership and for low-balling the cost. All make more
money the more expensive the system gets.
Brookings Institution paper
downloadable
here
The Facts on Light Rail - A comparative analysis of light rail systems in six West Coast cities
Paper by Michael Ennis,
Washington Policy Center;
April, 2008
   
Our  research page arguing against outmoded, expensive and DANGEROUS AT-GRADE "Light"
and Heavy Rail Systems
More on Visual Intrusion (monorail)
Is "Light" Rail
Really Safe?
YouTube -- 1/18
AIA Presentation
(10 clips)